Chief Strategist Bill Keller

Those who support President George W. Bush's re-election effort can only hope that New York Times columnist Bill Keller quits his day job and becomes a Democratic political consultant. On today's op-ed page, Mr. Keller outlines a Democratic agenda for winning back the Congress and the White House (reg. required). When I first read it, I thought he was kidding.

McCainiac

Mickey Kaus may be the reason you are here. If so, let me explain why it is that I think McCain will run for president as an independent. (By scrolling down a bit, you can read the original McCain item, which also riffed off a Kausfiles item. Blogging is circular).

Five Reasons Why McCain Will Run as an Indpendent:

1. Because he can't win the Republican nomination.
2. Because he can't win the Democratic nomination.
3. Because there is no drug in the world like running for president. It is more addictive that nicotine and stronger than heroin. And McCain (and his people) have that craving, that need.
4. Because McCain thinks he's better than Bush and Gore. (Presidential politics at the Bush/Gore/McCain level is largely about assessing the others and finding yourself -- by comparison and in your own mind -- better qualified, more distinguished, smarter, tougher, etcetera).
5. Because McCain knows what really killed George H.W. Bush in 1992: Ross Perot. And because McCain also knows that the 1992 exit polling found that Perot would have won the election had he not been perceived as "crazy."

New York City Blues

New York City is still reeling from the 11th of September. The budget deficit is now $5 billion and counting. The cost of debt service is rising. The city's pension plans are in trouble. State and Federal aid to plug the gap probably won't be forthcoming. Wall Street profits are off considerably. Big employers (like Merrill Lynch and Citigroup) are downsizing and relocating to New Jersey, Westchester and Connecticut. Big Media is still mired in the advertising recession, now in its 6th quarter. All in all, a grim picture.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg's only answer is yet more cutbacks in city services, which he outlined yesterday. They include reductions in fire department and police department services. Here's the kicker: The proposed cuts, described by the Mayor as "onerous," don't come close to closing the budget deficit. You can read the numbers by clicking here (registration required).

More distressing than the numbers though, is this paragraph from Russ Smith's Mugger column. Recounting the first day of Little League downtown, Smith writes: "I have enormous admiration for the men and women, such as League president Vito Suppa, J.C. Chmiel and Wally Turbeville, who cobbled together a season during the winter, facing not only the attrition of participants–so many people have moved from the city, cutting the number of players to approximately 300 from last year’s 600–but also the complicated task of finding alternate fields for the teams, since Stuyvesant High’s outdoor facilities were destroyed on Sept. 11."

From 600 to 300 Little Leaguers in one year is emblematic of New York City's woes.

McCain for President

Mickey Kaus predicts that the Beltway will soon be chattering about Senator John McCain (R-AZ) running for the Democratic presidential nomination. Kaus links to an article about this in the new Washington Monthly.

I have no doubt that Kaus is correct that the Beltway will soon be talking this up, but it isn't going to happen. McCain won't run for the Democratic presidential nomination; he'd never get it and the party's left-liberal core would never have him (the press would, but they're not yet delegates to Democratic National Conventions).

McCain will run for president in 2004 as an Independent. He'll run as the "not crazy" Ross Perot. His biggest boosters will be the national press corps. And he will be a problem for the White House.

Retrenchment

How hard has Argentina and the telecom collapse hit the American banking community? FleetBoston Financial Corp, the nation's seventh-largest bank, today announced that it was selling its investment banking division, Robertson Stephens, and cutting its venture capital portfolio by 30 percent. And that was the appetizer. WSJ.com (subscription required) has the story. Here's the main course:

"As part of a broad retrenchment amid sagging profits, (FleetBoston) also plans to scale back and consider selling all or part of its extensive operations in Latin America, sell its big student-loan servicing business, and exit most of its Asia operations, these people said. Chief Executive Charles K. Gifford made the announcements at the annual meeting in Boston Tuesday, confirming an article in Tuesday morning's Wall Street Journal."

Yikes.

Getting in the Groove

Ray Ozzie, who led the team that built Lotus Notes, started Groove Networks in 1997. The idea was to build a kind of hybrid peer-to-peer platform for teams to collaborate across boundaries. Version 2.0 has now been released and it enables people like you and me to take advantage of Groove's collaborative tools. Let's go to the press release:

"Groove Networks Inc. today (4/15) announced that for the first time small businesses and individuals can purchase Groove® products and services from the company's Web site at www.groove.net. Available immediately is Groove Workspace™, an out-of-the-box collaboration solution for small businesses and individuals seeking to increase productivity, reduce travel costs, and tighten connections with partners, customers and suppliers. Groove Workspace version 2.0 features integration with Microsoft Office applications, time-saving project and meeting management tools, and the ability to customize tools for specific business tasks and processes."

Microsoft recently invested $51 million in Groove Networks. Version 2.0 makes you realize why.

Michael Thomas Leaves The Observer

The New York Observer's best columnist, Michael Thomas, announced today that he would no longer write for the paper. Instead, he plans to tend to his garden and hit the links. He will, however, continue to write his excellent blog. Bookmark it.

Serial Killer

People who get on the wrong side of NBC Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Bob Wright usually end up "employed elsewhere," as the saying goes. Just ask Roger Ailes, formerly Chairman and CEO of CNBC, now Chairman and CEO of the Fox News Channel.

Last autumn, Wright did his level best to kill off NBC President and Chief Operating Officer Andrew Lack, but was over-ruled by the Big Suit in Stamford. Phase Two of the dump-Lack campaign begins today in The New York Times. Turning around MSNBC -- an impossible task -- is the performance bar that Wright sets for Lack. You can read all about it by clicking here (registration required).

It's Come To This

Wall Street Journal columnist Kara Swisher today says publicly what everyone has been saying privately: Maybe AOL should be spun off. It's a tough, smart column and after quickly summarizing a number of pressing problems at the company, she cuts to the chase:

"If all this doesn't work, AOL Time Warner Chief Executive Richard Parsons would not be wrong to consider a more drastic move, including spinning off the AOL unit.

Sources at the top of the company call this option ridiculous. But is it? Right now, calculating the value of the corporation's assets at its current stock price, the AOL online service is valued at exactly nothing -- so it's not as if this move would kill the company's value.

The plus: It would allow America Online to become nimble again and rise and fall on its own, able to make alliances it needs outside the Time Warner family. While Mr. Pittman and others touted the magical abilities of the online unit to sell other Time Warner goods and services, it hasn't turned out quite that well yet, and such deals could still be done without the iron link on friendly terms. What's more, it's not as if any of the other slow-growth businesses of the company (magazines, for example) are helping AOL that much."

You can read the whole piece by clicking here. But you need to be a subscriber to WSJ.com.

Collapse

I can't imagine that Tiger imagined that they'd just give him the tournament. Retief Goosen folded his hand on the first hole, Mickelsen, with back-to-back bogeys on 3 and 4, shortly thereafter. Garcia shortly after that. Then Els on 13 (the dreaded snowman), then Vijay on 15 (the dreaded quad). Jose Maria Olazabel was too far back to make a run.

So Tiger played it safe after the brilliant chip on 6, with two great shots (the approaches at 15 and 18) thrown in just to remind everyone how he got there. The collapse of the others in no way diminishes his accomplishment. He's the greatest player in the game and the greatest player to ever play the game. On to Bethpage Black, site of the US Open in June.