New Hampshire, Post Iowa
The first really complete set of data is now available here. There has been no Edwards bounce as yet. If one does not materialize, then Kerry will almost certainly win New Hampshire.
The Rule of Two
Generally speaking, news organizations like head-to-head match-ups, since they are less expensive to cover than multi-candidate field races. This is especially true at TV networks, where the cost of having a crew on four or five campaigns is, eventually, prohibitive.
So a major media bias is to reduce the size of the field, which is done by cutting off oxygen (coverage) to lagging candidates (thus the importance of polls). The front page of today's New York Times is a perfect example of this bias. The headline is "A Shuffled Democratic Deck Arrives in New Hampshire." The subheads are: "Kerry is Confident" and "Dean is Subdued."
Bad day for Mssrs. Lieberman, Clark and Edwards. The networks will pick up on the NYT theme (two-man race between Kerry and Dean) and organize their coverage accordingly. Oxygen denied to Joe Lieberman, Wes Clark and John Edwards for one important day. That's how the real winnowing process works.
Journalistic Ethics, Continued
It turns out CBS isn't the only major network that likes to barter its news division for ratings advantage. Sharon Waxman reports on how NBC negotiated with Michael Jackson.
Edwards, Part Two
A friend emails to say that folks in New Hampshire, who know Kerry well because of their exposure to Boston media, are not going to give him the kind of bounce one would expect after his impressive Iowa victory (and kudos to Michael Whouley on that). He predicts an Edwards surge after the Kerry mini-bump, on the Kausian theory that enthusiasm for Kerry is inversely related to proximity. The closer you are, the less enthusiastic you are about him.
It does appear, judging from this morning's reports, that Edwards has decided to campaign hard in New Hampshire.
Cliche Alert
In the spirit of Kausfiles, a contest. Predict which reporter/columnist will be the first to say that the Dean campaign was a dot.com and the bubble burst. Email your entries now. My guess: the one and only, R.W. Apple.
Postscipt: Change that to "in the spirit of James Taranto," who thought of it first.
PPS: We have what looks like a winner. And perfect symmetry as well!
Edwards
With Kerry now certain to get a strong bump in New Hampshire, the question for the Edwards campaign is this: NH or SC? Does he go hard at New Hampshire and come what may? Or would the wiser course be to basically concede NH (and let the story be: Clark's demise) and battle it out in South Carolina?
If Kerry wins Iowa and New Hampshire, can he be stopped? That's the question on the table for the Edwards campaign. They have about 2 hours to decide.
That Sound You're Hearing
Is the air going out of General Wesley Clark's campaign. If the early numbers from Iowa are correct (and there's every reason to believe that they are -- more or less), then Senator John Kerry is well on his way to front-runner status in New Hampshire. The tracking polls will mark the shift by Wednesday and by Thursday, Kerry will be even with or ahead of Dean.
And then, sometime around 6am on Thursday morning, the Clark campaign will be faced with a choice: go hard negative on Kerry or be done. The entire premise of the Clark campaign was to be the "not-Dean." But if Dean is "not," then what is Clark?
Postscript Make that: sometime around 6am on Wednesday morning.
The Des Moines Register Poll
It's always been a remarkably reliable indicator and it points to a very long night for the decision desk operations at the major networks. There are those of us who still believe that Sen. Paul Simon, not Dick Gephardt, won the Iowa Democratic caucuses in 1988. It seems possible to me that we will not know who really won the Iowa caucuses until well into Tuesday morning or later.
Postscript: Never mind.
|
|
