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Tracking Poll

I've sort of settled on the WMUR-WCVB-Fox News Channel and Gallup surveys as "my" tracking polls. The people who actually oversee the work seem to me to be the most knowledgeable about New Hampshire.

The latest WMUR-WCVB-FNC poll has now been posted. And it bodes ill for General Clark.

The New Hampshire Survey Center (which conducts the WMUR-WCVB-FNC poll) weights the affiliation distribution at roughly 50-50; meaning that they anticipate that 50% of the primary electorate will be registered Democrats and 50% will be "undeclareds" (independents, to use the media phrase).

Using that distribution, Kerry is going to win, Dean is going to finish second and the race is on for third.

However, if the distribution is 60% Democratic- 40% Undeclared, then Kerry's numbers will fall a bit, Dean's standing will improve a bit and General Wesley Clark will disappear. As of right now, Clark is attracting only 7% of the registered Democrats surveyed to his cause.

New Hampshire Notes

1. Has former Governor Dean stopped his slide? Might he capture second place? The veteran scribes would be very cross if he did, since they have already written (in their heads) the Dean obit and the South Carolina set-ups (either Kerry vs. Edwards or Kerry vs. Clark).

Alas, the Gallup, WMUR-WCVB-FNC and ARG tracking polls are now showing a bit of bounce-back for Dean. He might just get second, if these polls are accurate.

The Rule of Two would thus require the scribes to frame the race as Kerry vs. Dean. But they've long since decided that Dean is a goner. Cognitive dissonance crisis grips the Sheraton Wayfarer.

2. Mickey Kaus is emptying out his suitcase of anti-John Kerry material and posting it as fast as he can. All of what he says is true, but one point really resonates with Ellisblog. And that's the item about all the Massachusetts politicians who can't stand Kerry who are up in New Hampshire campaigning for him. In politics this is called "punching your ticket."

When I worked for the Globe, I spent a lot of time talking to the Beacon Hill crowd. Their loathing of Kerry was nearly universal. Now they're tooting his horn in New Hampshire. It's a Howie Carr column on steroids.

3. Thanks to Jay Fitzgerald for the Herald link.

They're Out to Get Him

General Wesley Clark says that the Fox News Channel is part of a right-wing conspiracy which is doing everything it can to derail his candidacy. Okey-dokey.

Blaming Brit Hume for Clark's miserable debate performance is like blaming "the Curse of the Bambino" for Grady Little's disastrous management in Game Seven of the ALCS. It's grandiose, but it ain't true.

The Brooks Book on Kerry

David Brooks joins Ellisblog (scroll down until you get to the post about John K and affirmative action) and many others in identifying the great weakness of John Kerry as a political leader. He's all hat and no cattle.

Table for Two!

What would we do without Johnny Apple? He's got a classic process story about the Kerry Campaign in South Carolina, which no doubt enabled the great gourmand to eat well in Charleston. Unsurprisingly, the thrust of his story elides Kerry's major weakness as a Democratic presidential candidate.

That weakness is this: Kerry is the un-soul brother. He's the honkiest of honkies. South Carolina is important because it brings to the table the African-American community in large numbers (40%, more or less, of the primary voters will be black). Kerry's ability to engage African-American voters is, to put it politely, unproven. So that's Kerry's next challenge, not (as Mr. Apple asserts) to run TV commercials on local SC stations to prove his "commitment" to the state.

Played Out

Kerry has now officially peaked in New Hampshire (76% favorable translates into an E/P ratio -- estimation/personality, sort of an inverted price/earnings -- of about 200). Will he start repeating Dean's mistakes in Iowa?

Mistake number one was: The Parade of Endorsements. This is a popular mistake amongst front-runners because it allows them to easily fill a news cycle without having to do anything or say anything. It also assuages their ego needs. Voters see it as self-congratulation and are prone to punish it immediately. See Dole, Bob, 1988.

Mistake number two was: Prevent Defense. Front-runners often decide that a successful day is one where no mistakes are made. Don't say anything other than "Bush lied" and "Bush is bad." Kerry will be prone to this kind of mistake. See Dole, Bob, 1996.

Mistake number three was: "Process." The Deaniacs talked about their org chart and their "ones," just as the Reaganites did in Iowa in 1980. Both lost, badly. There is creeping process talk coming out of the Kerry campaign.

Who The Hell is Greg Abbott?

He's a strategery guy. He explains why Ellisblog doesn't understand the bigger picture. Ellisblog responds: Clark enabling Kerry to win New Hamshire by 20 percentage points isn't a strategy, it's a fantasy.

While You Were Sleeping

Mickey Kaus was working! I'll let him bring you up to date on how the situation in New Hampshire has changed overnight. There does appear to be the beginnings of an Edwards "surge" for second.

Wonkette

I spent about an hour yesterday reading Wonkette, which may be the best thing to hit the blogosphere in while. Here's her take on Tina Brown. Click here for her take on the Democratic debate.