Scribes in Crisis; From Retail to Wholesale

It's clear that the national political press corps is flummoxed by New Hampshire. They have no idea what's going on, although they all agree that Kerry will win. Novak has been reduced to quoting "an elderly couple" in his hotel lobby. The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal both seem whipsawed by all the tracking polls.

When in doubt, resort to tired cliches and The Big Picture! The tired cliche is that after the New Hampshire primary, the campaign is no longer "retail," it's "wholesale." No kidding! The Big Picture is that after New Hampshire, the candidates have to pick and choose their spots, because starting next week, the game speeds up and the territory expands exponentially. No kidding! Also in today's papers, the obligatory David Rogers valentine to Senator John Kerry. No kidding! You can look it up.

My guess is that by tomorrow night, the scribes will give Kerry a "big" victory if he's in the mid-to-high thirties and runs ahead of whomever by a double-digit margin. On the other hand, a result of, say, Kerry 30%, Dean 23%, etcetera is not going to be well received. The scribes get grumpy when the results are cloudy! And they tend to punish winners for not making their job easier.

Unlike Republican primaries, where what the scribes say is meaningless (who cares what a bunch of liberal reporters think -- not that they're not objective), Democrat primary voters take the scribes seriously -- they're on their side! So what the scribes say matters down the line, when the campaign shifts from -- you guessed it -- retail to wholesale.

UBL is Still Dead

So argues Richard Muller in the latest MIT Technology Review. It's well worth reading. Thanks to Jay Fitzgerald for the heads-up.

The Rule of Two (Auto Division)

Years ago, the Chairman of the Board of General Motors told a friend of mine that by 2010, there would be only two major auto-makers left and that they would be General Motors and Toyota. Toyota just passed Ford as the world's second-largest automobile manufacturer.

If You're Looking For A Movie

Then go directly to In America.

Tracking Poll

I've sort of settled on the WMUR-WCVB-Fox News Channel and Gallup surveys as "my" tracking polls. The people who actually oversee the work seem to me to be the most knowledgeable about New Hampshire.

The latest WMUR-WCVB-FNC poll has now been posted. And it bodes ill for General Clark.

The New Hampshire Survey Center (which conducts the WMUR-WCVB-FNC poll) weights the affiliation distribution at roughly 50-50; meaning that they anticipate that 50% of the primary electorate will be registered Democrats and 50% will be "undeclareds" (independents, to use the media phrase).

Using that distribution, Kerry is going to win, Dean is going to finish second and the race is on for third.

However, if the distribution is 60% Democratic- 40% Undeclared, then Kerry's numbers will fall a bit, Dean's standing will improve a bit and General Wesley Clark will disappear. As of right now, Clark is attracting only 7% of the registered Democrats surveyed to his cause.

New Hampshire Notes

1. Has former Governor Dean stopped his slide? Might he capture second place? The veteran scribes would be very cross if he did, since they have already written (in their heads) the Dean obit and the South Carolina set-ups (either Kerry vs. Edwards or Kerry vs. Clark).

Alas, the Gallup, WMUR-WCVB-FNC and ARG tracking polls are now showing a bit of bounce-back for Dean. He might just get second, if these polls are accurate.

The Rule of Two would thus require the scribes to frame the race as Kerry vs. Dean. But they've long since decided that Dean is a goner. Cognitive dissonance crisis grips the Sheraton Wayfarer.

2. Mickey Kaus is emptying out his suitcase of anti-John Kerry material and posting it as fast as he can. All of what he says is true, but one point really resonates with Ellisblog. And that's the item about all the Massachusetts politicians who can't stand Kerry who are up in New Hampshire campaigning for him. In politics this is called "punching your ticket."

When I worked for the Globe, I spent a lot of time talking to the Beacon Hill crowd. Their loathing of Kerry was nearly universal. Now they're tooting his horn in New Hampshire. It's a Howie Carr column on steroids.

3. Thanks to Jay Fitzgerald for the Herald link.

They're Out to Get Him

General Wesley Clark says that the Fox News Channel is part of a right-wing conspiracy which is doing everything it can to derail his candidacy. Okey-dokey.

Blaming Brit Hume for Clark's miserable debate performance is like blaming "the Curse of the Bambino" for Grady Little's disastrous management in Game Seven of the ALCS. It's grandiose, but it ain't true.

The Brooks Book on Kerry

David Brooks joins Ellisblog (scroll down until you get to the post about John K and affirmative action) and many others in identifying the great weakness of John Kerry as a political leader. He's all hat and no cattle.

Table for Two!

What would we do without Johnny Apple? He's got a classic process story about the Kerry Campaign in South Carolina, which no doubt enabled the great gourmand to eat well in Charleston. Unsurprisingly, the thrust of his story elides Kerry's major weakness as a Democratic presidential candidate.

That weakness is this: Kerry is the un-soul brother. He's the honkiest of honkies. South Carolina is important because it brings to the table the African-American community in large numbers (40%, more or less, of the primary voters will be black). Kerry's ability to engage African-American voters is, to put it politely, unproven. So that's Kerry's next challenge, not (as Mr. Apple asserts) to run TV commercials on local SC stations to prove his "commitment" to the state.

Played Out

Kerry has now officially peaked in New Hampshire (76% favorable translates into an E/P ratio -- estimation/personality, sort of an inverted price/earnings -- of about 200). Will he start repeating Dean's mistakes in Iowa?

Mistake number one was: The Parade of Endorsements. This is a popular mistake amongst front-runners because it allows them to easily fill a news cycle without having to do anything or say anything. It also assuages their ego needs. Voters see it as self-congratulation and are prone to punish it immediately. See Dole, Bob, 1988.

Mistake number two was: Prevent Defense. Front-runners often decide that a successful day is one where no mistakes are made. Don't say anything other than "Bush lied" and "Bush is bad." Kerry will be prone to this kind of mistake. See Dole, Bob, 1996.

Mistake number three was: "Process." The Deaniacs talked about their org chart and their "ones," just as the Reaganites did in Iowa in 1980. Both lost, badly. There is creeping process talk coming out of the Kerry campaign.