My Take on New Hampshire

My take on the New Hampshire primary results are now up at Tech Central. You can read it by clicking here.

Defeating Terrorism

The new book from the West Point Counter-Terrorism Center (with which I am affiliated as a senior fellow) is now available on Amazon. It's excellent.

Realignment

Pollster John Zogby had Howard Dean closing fast on Sunday. None of the other serious polling organizations showed any such trend. What to do? Get back in line!

Says Zogby:

"For Kerry the dam burst after 5PM on Monday. Kerry had a huge day as Undecideds broke his way by a factor of four to one over Dean. Dean recaptured a strong lead among 18-29 year olds, Northerners, singles and Progressives. He narrowed the gap among men, and college educated, however Kerry opened up huge leads among women, union voters, and voters over 65 years of age. These groups gave Kerry the big momentum heading into the primary."

In the immortal words of Hillary Clinton, "okey-dokey, artichokey."

Thanks to the invaluable Real Clear Politics for the quote.

Final Prediction


Kerry 35%

Dean 22%

Edwards 18%

Lieberman 10%

Clark 8%

At Last, Some Personal Attacks

"I didn't go to Yale," said General Clark. Okay, it's not much, I admit. But it's a start. By the California primary, we might even been able to work these guys up to some negative TV ads.

Weighting the Exit Poll Numbers

My guess is that the pre-weights applied to the exit poll will be in the 60-40 range (60% registered Democrats and 40% Undeclareds). That won't have much bearing on the Kerry-Dean contest (unless, of course, it's close), but it could impact the "space" between John Edwards and Wesley Clark. The more "Democratic" the actual make-up of the primary electorate is, the better it is for Senator Edwards. Registered Democrats in New Hampshire have rejected General Clark.

The weights change as exit data, sample precincts and actual vote interact within the NEP's "modeling." So what might begin as a 60-40 designation can end up, at the end of the evening, as a 52-48 split. But 60-40 seems about right to me as a starting point. It will be interesting to see how many Republican-leaning Independents vote in the primary and whether they vote for Dean in large numbers (relative to their small percentage of the total electorate).

The end or the rebirth of the Dean campaign will be found in what as known as the Seacoast region (southeastern New Hampshire) and in the towns along the Vermont border around Dartmouth College. If Kerry beats him in both places, then it truly is over for Deano.

Great Moments in Blogging

After John Kerry fired his campaign manager in early November of last year, I decided not to write another word about his campaign, on the theory that you don't kick someone when they're down. I did say, because I couldn't resist a quick elbow on the way by, that his concession speeches from Iowa and New Hampshire would be the next-to-last and last major events of his campaign.

I like A1 Sauce on my crow.

Last Numbers

The UNH Survey Center's final track has been posted on the Foxnews.com website. Wes Clark is finished. John Edwards is alive.

The Truth At The Wrong Time?

Senator John Kerry makes the point -- and of course he's right -- that the Democrats don't need the South to take back the White House. This is probably a strategic gaffe; laying pipe for the abandonment of South Carolina while he stakes his claim in Missouri. Knowing the Kerry brain-trust, my guess is that they will be doing everything they can to set up Michigan (a few weeks hence) as "decisive" (in the minds of the media).

Part of winning the Democratic presidential nomination is defining what's important. Kerry has now said that the Southern primaries don't really matter much; what matters is one's ability to compete in the rest of the country. That works for Kerry; he's the least "Southern" candidate. The question is whether he can get away with it (1) in the media, and (2) in all those delegate-rich Southern states that are famously touchy about being looked down upon by the national Democratic Party (read: Yankees).

Something for the scribes to chew on as they gear up for their post-New Hampshire scene-setters. And no need to mention the odious Zogby, who just might be right and thus prove them all wrong.

Dean as Dot.com

The results of the Dean as Dot.Com metaphor contest are in and the winner is: Craig Crawford!

"The Dean campaign seems like one of those promising Internet companies from the late 1990s. They looked fabulous in Power Point presentations, but they could never turn a profit."

Yeah baby.