tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33099872024-03-13T00:35:57.928-04:00Ellisblog!"Do Your Job." -- Bill Belichick. You can reach me at jellis41@gmail.comJohnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comBlogger1891125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-10510185988200122542012-11-11T16:15:00.000-05:002012-11-11T16:15:03.883-05:00<b>Lessons Learned</b>. <br />
<br />
After it became clear that President Obama would win the Electoral College vote handily and garner a bare majority of the national popular vote, I started writing down notes on the lessons learned from campaign 2012.<br />
<br />
Those notes then became <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnellis/14-lessons-from-2012">this piece for Buzzfeed</a>. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-75599333130295004102012-11-04T20:35:00.000-05:002012-11-04T20:35:01.405-05:00<b>The Electoral College Vote</b><br />
<br />
The presidential election boils down to three questions:<br />
<br />
1. Can Romney win every southern state? I think the answer to that question is yes. The trickiest state for Romney is probably Virginia. North Carolina and Florida seem settled in his favor (at least to me). <br />
<br />
2. Can Romney win Colorado and New Hampshire? I think Colorado is done. I think he wins New Hampshire by a point.<br />
<br />
3. Can Romney poach two of the three Midwestern "firewall states" from Obama? Which is to say: Can Romney win Iowa and Wisconsin? I think he wins both by a slim (but no recount) margin. <br />
<br />
Which means he wins the election. <br />
<br />
We'll see. I think it's possible that Romney also wins Ohio and Pennsylvania, comes very close in Minnesota and Michigan and runs surprisingly well in Oregon, Illinois and New Mexico. But that presumes a more Republican-leaning electorate than most of the state polls are anticipating. <br />
<br />
One thing I do know is that the early exit polls will skew Democratic and that viewers wiil be well-advised to disregard much of what they hear about "early exits." The number to watch is President Obama's percentage of the white vote nationally. If it's near 40%, then he probably wins the Electoral College and the popular vote. If it's in the 36-37% range, Romney will be our next president. In between, obviously, things get dicey. <br />
<br />
Whatever happens, it is going to be a very late night.<br />
<br />
Note: Because I am working off an I-Pad, I can't figure out how to post my map to Blogger. Ordinarily I would take a screen shot of the map and post it that way, but....failure. Anyway, you can access the map by going to @41jellis on Twitter.<br />
<br />
<br />
Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-68978714358133745572012-10-29T17:17:00.000-04:002012-10-29T17:40:37.686-04:00<b>Great Swami Predicts, Part One</b><br />
<br />
<br />
So, there are two predictions one must make with regard to the presidential contest. Number One is the popular vote. Number Two is the Electoral College tally. Here's my math on the popular vote:<br />
<br />
Mitt Romney will get 63% of the non-Latino white vote, which will comprise 75% of the total electorate. This will bring his total to 47.25%. <br />
<br />
Mitt Romney will get 17% of the "other" (non-white) vote, which will add 4.25% to his column. <br />
<br />
He will win the popular vote with 51.5% of the total.<br />
<br />
Later this week: Electoral College tally! No toss-ups. <br />
<br />
<br />
Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-67400242170727023662012-10-23T11:26:00.001-04:002012-11-05T14:31:17.849-05:00<b>The Map</b><br />
<br />
<br />
Here's my take on what the electoral college looks like now:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gmcwFEvJhEA/UIarIXNOy9I/AAAAAAAAAKs/3K0nP2kxUEQ/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2012-10-23%2Bat%2B10.11.55%2BAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear:left; float:left;margin-right:1em; margin-bottom:1em"><img border="0" height="240" width="320" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gmcwFEvJhEA/UIarIXNOy9I/AAAAAAAAAKs/3K0nP2kxUEQ/s320/Screen%2BShot%2B2012-10-23%2Bat%2B10.11.55%2BAM.png" /></a></div><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
When I posted this on Twitter, there was some disagreement (as you might expect). Here's my reasoning/analysis:<br />
<br />
1. The great story of this election is Obama's <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/11/the_tipping_point_114438.html">collapsing support among non-Latino whites</a>. Nowhere is this collapse more....<i>complete</i> than <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx">in the Southern states</a>. That downdraft has taken North Carolina off the table and, I think, dooms Obama's efforts in Virginia and in Gold Coast and I-4 Florida. Those three states all lean Romney in my view. <br />
<br />
2. I do think that Romney can win Pennsylvania if he made a major investment there, but it <i>appears</i> that he will not do so. If he doesn't, then I think Obama hangs on to win it. Ditto Michigan, although I think Pennsylvania is slightly better for Romney than Michigan for a number of complicated reasons that are too lengthy to get into here.<br />
<br />
3. Polls indicate that Colorado is close and that Nevada is lean Obama. I was tempted to put Nevada in Obama's total, based largely on <a href="http://ralstonreports.com">Mr. Ralston's view</a> that the president will win the state. But I'm a week away from doing that. The Mormon vote there strikes me as a significant "x" factor. I am reasonably certain that Romney will win Colorado, based on a lot of input from friends in the state and pollsters whose judgement I trust.<br />
<br />
4. Wisconsin has had two major, statewide elections in the last two years (one for State Supreme Court Justice and one for the recall of Governor Scott Walker). The Republicans won the State Supreme Court Justice election by a whisker. They won the gubernatorial recall election by a relative landslide. Things haven't much changed there, except that the 2012 presidential election features Paul Ryan as the GOP's vice presidential candidate. It's truly too close to call. **<br />
<br />
5. President Obama is slightly ahead in Ohio, but the race there seems destined to be decided by 25,000 votes or so. So I left it toss-up.<br />
<br />
6. Iowa and New Hampshire are stone toss-ups.<br />
<br />
7. I haven't seen any data on Maine's 2nd Congressional District, but I assume it goes Obama and thus all 4 electoral college votes go into his total.<br />
<br />
8. The Omaha (NE) Congressional District went Obama in 2008. It won't this time.<br />
<br />
<br />
My somewhat larger view of the election is that Romney will win the popular vote. I'm assuming that Obama runs at 36-37% among non-Latino white voters (75% of the total vote, in all likelihood). That puts him at 27-28% of the total vote. If he does exactly as well as he did last time among non-white voters, he adds 21% to his national vote total. And he falls short of a majority.<br />
<br />
So it may be that we end up with a Romney win nationally and an Obama win in the Electoral College. <br />
<br />
<br />
** As a reader correctly pointed out to me, the Wisconsin State Supreme Court election was not a recall election. The text on Wisconsin has been corrected. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-75521137616123590282012-10-19T20:11:00.002-04:002012-10-19T20:11:35.791-04:00<b>Closing Time</b><br />
<br />
<br />
The race is close. After the last debate, closing arguments will be made. Here's <a href="http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/10/19/closing-time/">my take</a> on how the candidates might close. Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-60155040331026400502012-08-27T10:47:00.001-04:002012-08-27T10:47:33.832-04:00<b>Muni Blues.</b><br />
<br />
The crisis in state and municipal finance edges ever closer. When Warren Buffet decided to get out while he still could, it was front-page news. He won't be the last to head for the exits. <br />
<br />
My column on Berkshire Hathaway's "adios" to the state and muni market is <a href="http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/08/22/warren-buffet-dumps-muni-bonds/">here</a>. Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-50471946306334726722012-08-17T15:30:00.000-04:002012-08-17T15:30:17.098-04:00<b>The Absence of Leadership</b>.<br />
<br />
It's a <a href="http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/08/17/the-collapse-of-cnn/">big issue at CNN</a>, which is floundering badly here in the United States (it's doing very well, thank you, internationally). I <a href="http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/08/17/the-collapse-of-cnn/">wrote about this</a> for Walter Mead's blog today. Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-80199116647230493982012-08-14T14:48:00.001-04:002012-08-14T14:49:18.625-04:00<b>The Wall of Shame.</b><br />
<br />
My most recent post for <a href="http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/">Via Meadia</a> calls for <a href="http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/08/13/a-national-wall-of-shame/">the building of a national Wall of Shame</a>. Among those proposed for inclusion, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Reckless-Endangerment-Outsized-Corruption-Armageddon/dp/0805091203">James Johnson</a>. Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-26800093124369785562012-08-10T12:03:00.000-04:002012-08-10T12:03:41.505-04:00<b>Posts!</b><br />
<br />
Okay, one post. <br />
<br />
My friend Walter Mead is on one of his periodic State Department "informational exchange" <strike>boondoggles</strike> missions, this time in India. In the interim, he's asked a few of his pals to provide content for his most excellent blog, V<a href="http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/">ia Meadia</a>. <br />
<br />
This is my <a href="http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/08/10/nyt-hosts-media-fire-sale/">first contribution</a> to the VM site. It looks at the future of the New York Times company.Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-34059880298146535862012-06-11T09:33:00.001-04:002012-06-11T09:33:22.547-04:00<b>Obama and the 43%.</b><br />
<br />
Forty-three percent of all white voters cast their lot with Sen. Barack Obama in 2008. How many white voters vote for him this time will determine whether he wins re-election or not. My take is <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/11/the_tipping_point_114438.html">here</a> at <a href="http://realclearpolitics.com">Real Clear Politics</a>.Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-17560233432207157562012-06-06T12:41:00.001-04:002012-06-06T12:41:19.430-04:00<b>The Big Blue Blues.</b><br />
<br />
Here's my <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnellis/five-lessons-from-big-blues-wisconsin-disaste-5krk">latest</a> for Buzfeed. Big Blue got thumped. Team Obama has to be nervous. Why aren't the exit polls right? And more! You can read the whole thing <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnellis/five-lessons-from-big-blues-wisconsin-disaste-5krk">here</a>.Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-83830234075259546872012-06-01T14:58:00.000-04:002012-06-01T14:59:23.957-04:00<b>Cheeseheads Matter.</b><br />
<br />
Here's <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeedpolitics/the-number-that-matters-in-wisconsin">my take</a> on what's at stake in next Tuesday's gubernatorial recall election in Wisconsin. Most expect that Governor Scott Walker will survive the challenge. The question is by how much.<br />Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-9273086862683096382012-05-24T18:02:00.000-04:002012-05-24T18:02:55.718-04:00<b>Games of Chicken.</b><br />
<br />
<br />
Ezra Klein has <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/wonkbook-the-4-policymakers-who-could-decide-the-2012-election/2012/05/24/gJQA4zhrmU_blog.html">a smart piece</a> today on the four policy makers whose decisions may well determine the outcome of the 2012 US presidential election. The basic premise of the piece is that the outcome of the Eurozone crisis will tip the balance between President Obama’s re-election or defeat. <br />
<br />
Walter Mead has <a href="http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/05/24/europe-the-worlds-worst-dentist-with-the-worlds-dullest-drill/">a smart piece</a> today about the two simultaneous games of chicken being played out in the Eurozone as we speak. Game #1 is the mutual assured destruction stare-down between Germany (pay or die) and Greece (we die, everyone pays). Game #2 is the German-French face-off on the under-writing of Club Med (southern European) debt. <br />
<br />
By now, the mere mention of the subject – Eurozone crisis -- has become one of the great room-emptiers of our time. We’ve been through the drill repeatedly: cans are kicked, differences are fudged, pretend and extend goes on. And a few weeks or months later, the Euros go right back to square one and do it all over again. <br />
<br />
Yet it really is enormously important. And Klein is right, it probably will have a determinative impact on the 2012 US presidential election.<br />
<br />
The solution to the Eurozone crisis is, of course, a massive bailout. Everyone knows this. Part two of the solution is a series of gigantic loans to jump start growth across the Continent. There’s considerable argument about how this should be done (to say the least), but without economic growth the aging demographics of the Eurozone point to an almost endless economic stagnation – at best. Growth has to be on the agenda.<br />
<br />
The question is: where does this bailout/loan money come from? The answer from all the Europeans (except the Germans, of course) is Germany. The answer from the Germans is: we know that eventually we will have to underwrite some of the bailout, but we will do it on our terms and <i>we will not do it alone</i>.<br />
<br />
This is the third game of chicken that is being played out as we speak. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing off against President Obama in an advanced game of mutual assured destruction. <br />
<br />
Basically, her message to the US president is this: “I will not lose a single vote if I force Greece out of the Eurozone. If the Grexit is messy and leads to contagion, which it almost certainly will, then the crisis will escalate to a much more menacing level. At that point, the US will have to demand that the IMF under-write a massive Eurozone bailout or we’re looking at 1930s Europe on steroids.”<br />
<br />
“So, Barry, step up now if you hope to have any chance of re-election. We’ll help finance the bailout, but only if the IMF under-writes it. We can talk about percentage splits when you’re ready. But get ready and fast. Events may soon be in the saddle.”<br />
<br />
“And one last thing: don’t send little Timmy Geithner over here to lecture us anymore, okay? Deals like this get done at the <i>presidential</i> level, Barry. So man up, get off the golf course and come to the table.”<br />
<br />
Chancellor Merkel has no intention of letting President Obama off the hook on this. This puts the president in a difficult spot. Proposing a bailout of Club Med countries with US taxpayer dollars (washed through the IMF) is a one-way ticket to a 40-state loss in the electoral college. Not doing it risks the riptide of European economic and political implosion. <br />
<br />
Sometimes the choices a president has to make are between <a href="http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-09-13/politics/30148491_1_eurozone-president-obama-financial-times">the really bad and the truly dreadful</a>. President Obama, courtesy of Chancellor Merkel, now confronts just such a choice.<br />
<br />Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-80686179580029514222012-05-16T16:42:00.000-04:002012-05-16T16:42:08.562-04:00<b>Ellisblog! Electoral Map.</b><br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-D2JbgPvPYQE/T7QLj6fEXaI/AAAAAAAAAKQ/6zkyUschXTM/s1600/Screen%2Bshot%2B2012-05-15%2Bat%2B2.24.43%2BPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear:left; float:left;margin-right:1em; margin-bottom:1em"><img border="0" height="376" width="400" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-D2JbgPvPYQE/T7QLj6fEXaI/AAAAAAAAAKQ/6zkyUschXTM/s400/Screen%2Bshot%2B2012-05-15%2Bat%2B2.24.43%2BPM.png" /></a></div><br />
So there you go. <br />
<br />
Overall, I think the race will eventually produce either a narrow Obama victory or a decisive Romney win.<br />
<br />
The only state on my EV map that I am not entirely comfortable with is Colorado, which I think may be a "toss-up" state. You can argue it either way. There's no enthusiasm for President Obama in Colorado. There was a ton last time around. His numbers in individual Congressional Districts are anemic. Somewhere between "lean Romney" and "toss-up" seems right. I chose "lean Romney."<br />
<br />
Regarding the lower western states, I am unpersuaded that President Obama is "ahead" in Arizona or Nevada. I think they're both toss-ups. <br />
<br />
I struggled a bit with the Midwestern states. In my heart of hearts, I think Minnesota is a toss-up. But then I remember Romney's performance there in the caucuses and I scamper back to "lean Obama." Wisconsin couldn't be closer. Ditto for Michigan and Ohio. <br />
<br />
The South is solidly Romney, except for Virginia and Florida. I think in the end that Romney will win both. But I don't know that in the way, say, that I know that Romney will win South Carolina. So they're toss-ups. <br />
<br />
The Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic are exactly what you would expect. <br />
<br />
If I was a betting man, looking for a long-shot, I would bet Romney in Oregon. But it leans Obama for the moment. I think it will end up being much closer than last time around. The one thing that will help President Obama here is that Team Romney will probably write it off in mid-September. Which would be a mistake, but an understandable one. <br />
<br />
I will update this at the end of the summer, pre-conventions. Then in early October. Then again on the Friday before Election Day.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-9365207366349981202012-05-14T18:13:00.000-04:002012-05-14T18:13:06.243-04:00<b>Democratic Pros Fret About Obama Campaign Ineptitude</b>.<br />
<br />
<br />
On a balmy night in early June of 1986, a successful business executive and two-term Congressman named Ed Zschau won the GOP nomination for US Senate in California. Seen by professionals as <i>the</i> rising star of California Republican politics, Zschau defeated a divided primary field of more conservative candidates. It was widely expected in political circles that he would go on to defeat incumbent Sen. Alan Cranston in the general election.<br />
<br />
The very next night, the Cranston campaign unleashed a sustained, weeks-long negative campaign advertising attack on Mr. Zschau. The idea being that if Zschau was given time to regroup for the general election, he would be unstoppable. <br />
<br />
Sen. Cranston did not have a record that demanded his re-election. The issue had to be the challenger, not the incumbent. It was the first time in modern campaign history that a statewide incumbent had ever gone flat-out negative so early in the general election cycle. <br />
<br />
It worked. Zchau's campaign wasn't ready for the assault. The damage done in June proved too much to overcome in November. Sen. Cranston was narrowly re-elected.<br />
<br />
This year's presidential campaign sets up much like Senator Cranston's re-election campaign of 1986. President Obama cannot risk an election that becomes a referendum on his record. Fairly or not, that's a framework for defeat. So the task of his handlers is to make the election a referendum on his opponent. <br />
<br />
Since even my dogs know that Mr. Romney is going to frame the election as a referendum on President Obama's stewardship of the economy, the Obama handlers must do everything they can to make people imagine that President Romney's stewardship of the economy would be worse; an assault on the interests and values of "average" Americans. Thus today's <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=sWiSFwZJXwE&noredirect=1">2-minute ad</a> on Bain Capital's unsuccessful turn-around of GST Steel in Kansas City. The ad's thrust is that Romney was (and is) an economic "vampire."<br />
<br />
What's remarkable about the ad is not its content (<a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/299838/new-obama-attack-ad-features-steelworkers-blaming-bain-job-losses-katrina-trinkohttp://www.nationalreview.com/corner/299838/new-obama-attack-ad-features-steelworkers-blaming-bain-job-losses-katrina-trinko">mis-leading though it may be</a>). Anti-Bain ads have been used against Romney in 1994 (by Ted Kennedy's handlers), 2002 (by Shannon O'Brien's campaign) and 2012 (by New Gingrich). <br />
<br />
What's remarkable about the ad is that it raised at least as many questions about the Obama campaign as it did about Mr. Romney.<br />
<br />
On the very day that the ad was released, President Obama attended a fund-raiser in New York City <a href="http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-attacks-private-equity-raises-funds-private-equity-leaders_644470.html">hosted by a senior executive at the Blackstone Group</a>, a leading private equity firm and frequent co-investor with Bain Capital on turn-around projects. <br />
<br />
And, it further turns out that a 2008 and 2012 campaign finance bundler for President Obama, one <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-campaign-fundraising-20120131,0,3306822.story">Jonathan Lavine</a>, was a managing director at Bain Capital during the time that GST Steel was being “run into the ground” by the evil Bainiacs. <br />
<br />
And, just to put some icing on the cake, it turns out that Mr. Romney was off <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/299850/obamas-new-attack-ad-already-debunked">fixing the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics</a> during the time that Romney and Bain were allegedly “vampiring” GST Steel. <br />
<br />
It makes you wonder. Did Team Obama think that no one would notice? Did they assume that only right-wing bloggers would care?<br />
<br />
Had this been an isolated event, Democrat campaign professionals might not be all that concerned. Mistakes, after all, are made. But this was hardly a "one off." There are, in the view of many Democratic pros, far too many other examples of the Obama campaign making a hash of fairly straightforward political matters.<br />
<br />
Most recently, for instance, Vice President Biden previewed the president's "evolution" on the issue of same sex marriage on NBC's "Meet The Press." The press, predictably, made it <i>the</i> next day story.<br />
<br />
Two days later, the voters of North Carolina, in large numbers and by a wide (61-39%) margin, voted <i>against</i> same-sex marriage. As messages go, it was hard to misread. <br />
<br />
The <i>very next day</i>, President Obama told the North Carolina knuckleheads to take their referendum and shove it; he endorsed same sex marriage, although he didn't make a federal case out of it. He left it for the states to work out the legislative details (conveniently enough). <br />
<br />
The mishandling of the President’s endorsement of same sex marriage sent the president's re-election prospects into a tailspin; electoral college handicappers busily moved North Carolina from “toss-up” to “likely Republican.” And it necessitated today’s "let's-get-the-media-talking-about-something-else” news event (the Bain attack ad). <br />
<br />
Because we have been told for so long that Team Obama is the very model of the modern campaign operation, we have come to sort of believe it. In reality, they’ve been surprisingly inept since they set up shop last year. They've been through three slogans and four over-arching re-election "themes." They've made a big deal out of Romney's dog. They've introduced us to "<a href="http://www.barackobama.com/life-of-julia">Julia</a>," which seemed like a right-wing parody of the perfect constituent of the nanny state. One could on (and on).<br />
<br />
So far, the president's re-election campaign measures up poorly, in terms of its execution, against the Alan Cranston re-election effort of 1986. Imagine that.<br />
<br />
<br />Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-24587991208997250382012-05-01T13:50:00.002-04:002012-05-01T13:50:52.646-04:00<b>Fracking Obama.</b><br />
<br />
The technological revolution in energy is creating a locomotive of economic growth. Mitt Romney needs to get on the train. <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnellis/ellis-romneys-answer-to-forward-is-brown-e-5krk">My latest column for Buzzfeed</a>.Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-46433471791535751752012-04-05T12:49:00.000-04:002012-04-05T12:51:34.395-04:00<b>The Collapse of Big Blue </b><br />
<br />
The defining issue in American politics today is the collapse of the Blue Social Model and what replaces it. President Obama is running on a platform of defending Big Blue, because he doesn't know how else to get re-elected. That's an opportunity for Mitt Romney, if he dares take it. He almost certainly won't. <br />
<br />
My <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnellis/wheres-romneys-alternative-5krk">column for Buzzfeed</a> on this subject is <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnellis/wheres-romneys-alternative-5krk">here</a>.Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-19693386969567323932012-03-28T14:49:00.002-04:002012-03-28T14:52:30.613-04:00<b>Ellisblog! I-Team Special Report!</b><br />
<br />
A while back, our crack investigative unit came across a company called <a href="http://www.dollarshaveclub.com/">Dollar Shave Club</a>. The company's premise (and promise) was to provide a great shaving experience at a fraction of the cost of the (say) Gillette experience. After lengthy due diligence and in-depth analysis, we are now able to provide you with a full report.<br />
<br />
Here's the deal: <br />
<br />
1. The Dollar Shave Club basic dual razor blade isn't as good as, say, a Gillette Sensor razor blade. <br />
<br />
2. The Dollar Shave Club basic razor shaving experience is similar to the shaving experience one has when using a plastic, throw-away blue Gillette razor. <br />
<br />
3. Dollar Shave Club razors really are <i>very</i> inexpensive.<br />
<br />
4. Dollar Shave Club razors are good enough to get the job done, without discomfort. <br />
<br />
5. Or as Jim Cramer might put it: <a href="http://www.dollarshaveclub.com/">BUY BUY BUY</a>.**<br />
<br />
<br />
**Editors Note: We do not have any stake of any kind in Dollar Shave Club. We think we wish we did, but we're not sure. Years ago, the same Jim Cramer wrote a post which made the case that Shick should stop directly competing with Gillette and re-position itself as an econo-razor. Just as good, but one-third less. I always thought that was <i>very</i> good advice, but it never happened, for whatever reason. The question here is whether Dollar Shave Club can become North America's "econo-razor." I'm not sure the answer is "yes." But I hope it does, if only to create downward price pressure on Gillette.Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-12018702747136179662012-03-14T13:12:00.000-04:002012-03-14T13:12:09.930-04:00<b>Saving Goldman Sachs</b><br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Memo</b><br />
<br />
To: Richard Siewert, Global Commmunications Director, Goldman Sachs<br />
<br />
Fr: Nightmare Communications<br />
<br />
Date: Wednesday, 14 March 2012<br />
<br />
Re: The Situation.<br />
<br />
<br />
Let's look on the bright side, shall we? Things could hardly be worse. This <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/opinion/why-i-am-leaving-goldman-sachs.html?_r=1&ref=opinion">Greg Smith letter</a> is a disaster, but --happily enough -- it's not <i>your</i> disaster. It's everyone else's disaster. You are literally the only person at the firm whose reputation is not in some way damaged by it. <br />
<br />
So that's good. You begin untarnished. And there's literally nothing you can do about what has happened. So there's hardly any point in rehashing it or litigating the past. What's done is done. The only question is: what are you going to do now?<br />
<br />
Here are four recommendations:<br />
<br />
1. Fire your advertising agency and put a review in place for hiring a new one. The current campaign is a <a href="http://articles.businessinsider.com/2010-10-01/wall_street/30001982_1_goldman-sachs-integrity-advertising-campaign">complete waste of money</a>. The issue was never: underwriting housing projects in New Orleans. The issue was always (and is today) <a href="http://articles.businessinsider.com/2010-10-01/wall_street/30001982_1_goldman-sachs-integrity-advertising-campaign">the integrity of the firm</a>. Address the issue.<br />
<br />
2. Fire your PR firm(s). There are, every day, amazing stories going on at Goldman Sachs. People at every level of the firm are helping build extraordinary businesses around the world. <br />
<br />
The other day I lost my I-Phone on the train. I called <a href="http://www.asurion.com/">Asurion</a>, the Goldman Sachs-financed insurance company that insures my phone. I go to their website, I fill in the information, it takes like eight minutes all in, two days later an I-Phone 4S arrives via UPS. Fantastic! I had no idea Goldman was involved until a friend told me so. I'm willing to bet that there are literally hundreds of Asurions out there, whose GS pedigree is unknown.<br />
<br />
Find a PR firm or PR firms that can help you tell those stories.<br />
<br />
3. Coordinate all of the firm's philanthropic and charitable work into a coherent message. Goldman Sachs (the company) and its partners (individually) are huge contributors to philanthropic and charitable enterprises. No one knows that and if they do know it, they don't know the stories behind those involvements. Let them know it. <br />
<br />
4. Be a channel. Build your own news site. Build your own TV studio. Do weekly briefings on the economy, on industry verticals, on policy questions, etc. Publish a news summary (every day). Publish analysis and commentary. Cut out the middleman. Be GSnews.com.<br />
<br />
Here's the best news of all. At this very moment, not even Lloyd Blankfein would dare reject a communications budget request. <i>Whatever you need</i> will be the general idea amongst the senior management. So load up the wish list, lad. Circumstances will never ever be so budget-be-damned favorable again.Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-30904132326471266162012-03-07T08:51:00.000-05:002012-03-07T08:51:47.035-05:00<b>Santorum.</b><br />
<br />
Here's <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnellis/why-rick-wont-quit-515s">my column</a> on why Rick runs. It was posted on <a href="www.buzzfeed.com">Buzzfeed</a> this morning.Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-24102317789017073962012-02-01T05:01:00.001-05:002012-02-01T05:03:16.290-05:00<b>Buzzfeed</b>.<br />
<br />
At the end of last year, my friend Ben Smith informed me that he was creating a politics vertical at a website called <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com">Buzzfeed</a>. He asked me if I would be willing to write for the site from time to time. I said: "sure."<br />
<br />
So <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnellis/big-media-is-about-to-pull-the-plug-on-gingrich-515s">here's the second "column"</a> I've written to date. The basic thesis is that major media are switching to zone coverage and that that's bad news for everyone except Romney. <br />
<br />
The <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnellis/how-mitt-romney-can-put-this-thing-away-515s">first column</a>, in case you missed it, argued that Romney should use all of his resources to bury Gingrich in South Carolina and Florida. He didn't and then he did.Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-9389617487919305102012-01-27T04:33:00.001-05:002012-01-27T04:41:07.250-05:00<b>The Fear Factor</b>.<br />
<br />
Felix Salmon had <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/01/25/fear-in-davos/">a good column</a> the other day on fear gripping the Davos elite. "Europe," he wrote,"risks falling apart — and there’s nothing that anybody here can do about it, if it happens." <br />
<br />
If you talk to people who circulate at gatherings like the World Economic Forum, what you find is that many if not most of these policy-makers and globo-bankers believe that <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5b328348-483f-11e1-b1b4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1kbrVoXxq">Europe falling apart is an even bet</a>. <br />
<br />
The prospect terrifies them. As well it might. The consensus seems to be that it would make the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the autumn of 2008 look relatively tame by comparison.<br />
<br />
It was interesting to note that President Obama, in his State of the Union address, said not one word about the crisis of the eurozone and the possible collapse of the European Union. It is, I suppose, a subject best avoided in a nationally televised address to a sullen and depressed electorate. <br />
<br />
But <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b21cdd3e-46af-11e1-bc5f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1kCPJuyha">the day is finally approaching</a> when the crisis will hit its inflection point and muddling through with half-measures and kicking the can down the road apiece will no longer suffice. Greece cannot meet its obligations. <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/01/26/853131/portugal-back-in-the-frame/">Neither can Portugal</a>. Neither can Spain, really, <a href="http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2012/01/25/how-to-pull-italy-and-spain-back-from-the-precipice/#axzz1keG4xk1I">when you do the math</a>. <br />
<br />
When the day comes, President Obama will be faced with a choice: participate in a global bail-out or inherit the wind. At least $2 trillion USD in sovereign contributions and guarantees will be required to do the job. The President, having promised in a nationally televised address just two days ago, "no more bailouts," will face a choice between catastrophic policy and a combo package of hideous policy and breaking his word. <br />
<br />
To make matters more acute, President Obama's prospects for re-election hinge on the outcome of the Euro crisis, in much the same way that Senator McCain's prospects for winning the presidency hinged on the Bush Administration's final decision on what to do about Lehman Brothers. <br />
<br />
If Europe goes down, the president will go down with it. If he decides to rescue Europe, he stands an even chance of keeping his job, but at a not inconsiderable cost to his integrity and standing as a national political leader ("I meant no more bailouts <i>here at home</i>..." isn't a credible defense).<br />
<br />
You would think that one of the many political geniuses (about whom so much has been written) advising President Obama would have said to him: let's leave the "no more bailouts line out of the SOTU. Keep our options open on Europe." That would have been sound advice. <br />
<br />
Instead, they sent the president out there with a SOTU address that blithely ignored the most pressing and important global economic issue of our time and positioned the president in such a way as to insure maximum political damage to his credibility as a leader (should the eurozone crisis escalate, which it almost surely will). <br />
<br />
Remember that the next time you read about the political geniuses managing the president's re-election campaign.Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-46238778921679344242011-12-20T14:18:00.000-05:002011-12-20T14:18:39.160-05:00<b>The Iowa Math</b>.<br />
<br />
Paul Tully, the late, great Democratic political operative, used to say about whatever state he happened to be organizing: "you gotta do the math." So, let's do the math for the 2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Precinct Caucuses Straw Poll.<br />
<br />
For the sake of argument, let's say that 4% of the caucus attenders vote "undecided." Let's further stipulate that candidates Perry, Bachmann, Santorum and (I guess) Huntsman (bundled together) gather 26% of the total vote. <br />
<br />
That leaves 70% up for grabs. <br />
<br />
It seems safe to say that Ron Paul will garner something like 25% of the total Straw Poll vote. I imagine that the total electorate will be roughly 150,000 people, so 25% would be 37,500 votes. That seems maybe a tad bit high, but Paul is well-organized and well-financed and you have to believe that he will get every last one of his supporters to their assigned stations.<br />
<br />
That leaves 45% (give or take) of the vote up for grabs. <br />
<br />
If we assume that Gingrich is good for 30,000 votes and Romney is good for 30,000 votes then the remaining 7500 votes are decisive. If Romney goes below 30K, Gingrich wins. If Gingrich falls below 30K, Romney wins. <br />
<br />
It's very few people, obviously, and not exactly representative of the national Republican Party electorate. But 10,000 votes either way will have a HUGE impact on the press narrative that is written immediately following the announcement of the Iowa Straw Poll results.<br />
<br />
The press is <i>dying</i> to write the story of Newt Gingrich's second collapse. They can't stand him and they want him to lose. If he finishes third in Iowa, they will write his political obituary in acid. <br />
<br />
If he wins Iowa, the narrative writes itself: Gingrich vs. Romney, with New Hampshire presumably boosting Romney a week later and South Carolina setting up as must-win for Gingrich. <br />
<br />
The one thing we can be sure of is that a Paul victory in Iowa has already been "priced into" the political marketplace. No one will pay it any mind.Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-55340257420898404072011-12-13T16:25:00.000-05:002011-12-13T16:25:59.766-05:00<b>Iowa Expectations.</b><br />
<br />
Let's go through the check list, shall we?<br />
<br />
1. Gingrich <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html">is leading in virtually every poll</a> of alleged caucus attenders in Iowa by a double-digit margin. <br />
<br />
2. He polls better than he will actually perform in the straw poll balloting (that precedes the actual caucuses and that is the reported "result" on January 3rd). <br />
<br />
3. He will under-perform because he does not have a substantial statewide organization. And he doesn't have any money to buy telemarketing services and the like to insta-build a statewide organization. <br />
<br />
4. Ron Paul, on the other hand, has a substantial "field" organization and so is likely to somewhat "over-perform" in the actual balloting. If we say that he has 18% of the vote going in, he might actually win as much as 22% in the straw poll.<br />
<br />
5. Mitt Romney has a better organization in Iowa than people (in the national press corps, at least) think. This is due to his prior presidential campaign in Iowa four years ago and the fact that his campaign is now spending money on organization in Iowa (while doing everything it can to lower expactations). It's possible that he could break into the low 20s, which would be just fine by Boston's calculations.<br />
<br />
6. The key for Romney is for Paul to out-perform and for Gingrich to under-perform. This sets up a press narrative of the Gingrich souffle. The Newtster rose and then he fell. The normal laws of political gravity apply. Unstated conclusion: Gingrich is doomed.<br />
<br />
7. This is exactly the narrative that Romney needs going into New Hampshire. <br />
<br />
8. Rick Perry has to throw everything he's got at Iowa or he gets written out of the story. If he can finish third, he might (as former Senator Fred Harris famously said in 1976) get "winnowed in." But if he's fourth, then he's done.<br />
<br />
Hat Tip: Arnon MishkinJohnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3309987.post-51465596691279215572011-12-12T07:25:00.000-05:002011-12-12T07:25:31.638-05:00<b>Saturday Night's Debate</b><br />
<br />
I didn't watch it, but I read most of <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/full-transcript-abc-news-iowa-republican-debate/story?id=15134849#.TuXwrUqqBu0">the transcript</a>. The best analyses of what happened were written by Ron <a href="http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2011/12/five-takeaways-from-saturdays.php">Brownstein</a>, John <a href="http://www.nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/12/heilemann-gingrich-triumph-at-first-iowa-debate.html?imw=Y&f=most-viewed-24h5">Heileman</a> and <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gingrich-comes-under-attack-in-gop-debate/2011/12/09/gIQASF4plO_story.html">Dan Balz</a>. Click on the names to read what they wrote. <br />
<br />
Unifying theme: Gingrich won the debate, handily. See <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/12/09/the_question_of_the_moment_112336.html">below</a> for more on why he's running circles around his opponents.Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05238493850342632738noreply@blogger.com