Friday, March 08, 2002

Granholm Surge in Michigan

The surge of Michigan Attorney General Jennifer Granholm (D) in the Democratic gubernatorial primary is noteworthy and spells trouble for the GOP in the future. Yes, the Detroit News poll numbers are based upon a relatively small subset of likely Democratic primary voters. But those numbers don't differ much, if at all, from what private polls are showing.

Assuming Ms. Granholm is able to hold her grip on female Democratic primary voters (who now support her by margins of better than 2-to-1), she'll probably win the early August primary. According to the News survey, Granholm enjoys a huge lead over the likely Republican gubernatorial nominee (and perhaps appropriately named) Lt. Governor Richard Posthumus.

One has the sense that the national Republican Party may cut its losses in Michigan and redirect resources to other key states (like Pennsylvania and Illinois). If that happens and Granholm wins both the primary and the general election by wide margins, then a new Democratic star will be born. More important, Democrats will control the governor's office in a key battleground state in 2004.