Monday, May 13, 2002

Down To Earth

Mitt Romney's poll numbers in Massachusetts have fallen sharply. Yes, the University of Massachusetts Poll is usually more favorable to Democrats. So yes, it's probably not true that state Treasurer Shannon O'Brien (D-Female) "leads" Romney in a truly representative sampling of statewide opinion.

But at the end of April, Opinion Dynamics Corporation -- hands-down the best polling outfit in the Northeast and one of the very best in the country -- found Romney wallowing in the mid-40s against both O'Brien and former Labor Secretary Robert Reich. Given the weakness of these opponents, the mid-40s hardly constitute a position of strength.

All those GOP operatives who started counting Romney as a "win" when he wrestled the Republican gubernatorial nomination away from acting Governor Jane Swift had better start speed-dialing for dollars. Romney's no better than a 50-50 bet in Massachusetts. Which says a lot more about Massachusetts than it does about Mitt Romney. Most states would kill to have someone of Romney's caliber serve as their governor. But Massachusetts, I can tell you from long, dreadful political experience, is not most states.

Thanks to Goddard's Political Wire for the heads-up on the UMass Poll.