Romney vs. O'Brien

In the real world, the choice between Massachusetts gubernatorial nominees Mitt Romney (R) and Shannon O'Brien (D) would be a no-brainer. Romney is head-and-shoulders smarter and more able than Ms. O'Brien. But this election is taking place in Massachusetts, which is a mindset unto itself. And so reports that Ms. O'Brien is the "underdog" strike me as premature, if not ridiculous.

Barring some politically catastrophic error on Ms. O'Brien's part, I am willing to bet a lot of money that the best Mitt Romney can do is 52%. And he can do a lot worse. It's a toss-up.