Monday, October 21, 2002

Gubernatorial Update

1. Here in New York, the only open bet left is whether Democratic gubernatorial nominee Carl McCall finishes second or third. Fred Dicker reports in today's New York Post that a number of political operatives are betting on third.

2. Governor Jeb Bush (R) appears to have stopped the bleeding in Florida. GOP tracking polls show the McBride surge ebbing. The Washington Post reports that Democrats are now rushing additional resources and GOTV (get out the vote) people into the state. That's always a sign of slippage.

3. Texas appears to have firmed up for Governor Rick Perry (R), who now enjoys a comfortable lead in two public polls. More important, his number is at or about 50%, which is, of course, what would be necessary on Election Day.

4. California Governor Gray Davis (D) has convinced everyone in media-politicosphere that he will be re-elected. GOP tracking polls in California, however, show the race between Davis and GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Simon to be within the margin of error. And Davis continues to register the highest unfavorable rating I've ever seen for a "favored" candidate. Most polls show his "unfave" in the mid-40s.

5. The best analysts of Massachusetts politics now view GOP gubernatorial nominee Mitt Romney as a likely loser to State Treasurer Shannon O'Brien. This lends new meaning to the phrase: "only in Massachusetts."