Poll Question

Mr. Kaus asks the following question: Given all the good news at President Bush's back, why is he only leading former Governor Howard Dean by 51%-46% in the latest Time/CNN poll? The more relevant question is this: Given that President Bush now leads Gov. Dean (and all the other Democratic presidential candidates) by wide margins in New Hampshire (30 point lead), Texas (35 point lead), Florida (12 point lead), Ohio (double digit lead), Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, etcetera, etcetera, how is it possible that he only leads former Governor Dean by 5 percentage points nationally? Maybe one or two of these private polls in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Tennessee, Missouri et alia are wrong. But they can't all be wrong.

The political situation reminds me of Reagan-Carter 1980. The national polls said it would be close. The state-by-state polling pointed toward a 10 percentage point win and an electoral college landslide.