The Laws of CW

I'm a little confused by Mark Halperin's assertion that the presidential race is now "Kerry's to lose." Isn't the Iron Law of Conventional Wisdom that "whoever leads in the Gallup Poll after Labor Day wins the election? " Isn't President Bush leading in the Gallup Poll now? Isn't it likely that President Bush's lead in the Gallup Poll will increase somewhat following the Republican National Convention and the 9/11 anniversary? If President Bush is up by, say, six in the Gallup Poll after Labor Day, won't he be the favorite to win in November?

(The answer to all these questions, in case you were wondering, is "yes.")