The First State Primary.


Can Christine O'Donnell defeat Mike Castle in the Delaware Republican US Senate primary today? A recent poll says it's a toss-up. The last GOP US Senate primary in Delaware was in 2006. Roughly 14,000 votes were cast. Let's assume that the 2010 GOP primary turnout increases by 150 percent. That would produce roughly 36,000 total votes. Can Christine O'Donnell get 18,001 votes? I would think so.

Addendum: In the event, turnout was 4 times the 2006 DESRP total. Christine O'Donnell needed 30,000 votes to win the primary. She got them.