Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Ellisblog! Electoral Map.

So there you go.

Overall, I think the race will eventually produce either a narrow Obama victory or a decisive Romney win.

The only state on my EV map that I am not entirely comfortable with is Colorado, which I think may be a "toss-up" state. You can argue it either way. There's no enthusiasm for President Obama in Colorado. There was a ton last time around. His numbers in individual Congressional Districts are anemic. Somewhere between "lean Romney" and "toss-up" seems right. I chose "lean Romney."

Regarding the lower western states, I am unpersuaded that President Obama is "ahead" in Arizona or Nevada. I think they're both toss-ups.

I struggled a bit with the Midwestern states. In my heart of hearts, I think Minnesota is a toss-up. But then I remember Romney's performance there in the caucuses and I scamper back to "lean Obama." Wisconsin couldn't be closer. Ditto for Michigan and Ohio.

The South is solidly Romney, except for Virginia and Florida. I think in the end that Romney will win both. But I don't know that in the way, say, that I know that Romney will win South Carolina. So they're toss-ups.

The Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic are exactly what you would expect.

If I was a betting man, looking for a long-shot, I would bet Romney in Oregon. But it leans Obama for the moment. I think it will end up being much closer than last time around. The one thing that will help President Obama here is that Team Romney will probably write it off in mid-September. Which would be a mistake, but an understandable one.

I will update this at the end of the summer, pre-conventions. Then in early October. Then again on the Friday before Election Day.