Half Sample Half Right

Turns out the exit poll half-sample underestimated Senator Edwards, not (as had been the case in previous states) Senator Kerry. Looking at the county vote, it appears that Senator Kerry will win Wisconsin by a 3-6% margin, depending on the (it should have read) Milwaukee and Dane County figures, which at this point have not been posted.

So it goes. Exit poll half-samples are sometimes misleading. And judging from tonight's coverage, the commentariat couldn't be happier. It gave them their story line -- Edwards did even better than the exit poll expected!

Vodafone Is Seen as Favored Buyer of AT&T Wireless

So read The New York Times headline this morning regarding the bake-off for AT&T Wireless. Oh well.

Exit Polls

Matt Drudge is reporting that Senator John Kerry leads Senator John Edwards by 42%-31% in the network exit poll of Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin. Howard Dean is said to be lagging at 16%. You can almost hear the media buzz that is building. Finally, the mano-a-mano battle is at hand. Most of the commentary you will hear this evening will revolve around an Edwards surge (and the dismissal of Dean). Which is nice because, as Mr. Kaus points out, that's what the media want.

But take it with at least a couple of grains of salt. This primary season, the exit poll numbers have been problematic in a number of states. And in a few states (most notably Tennessee) Senator Kerry has run well ahead of his mid-day exit poll numbers.

There's a theory in exit poll circles that candidates with the most enthusiastic supporters tend to do better in election day voter polls than they do when the actual votes are tallied. Why this should be, Ellisblog knows not. But it is the case that Howard Dean did a lot better in the New Hampshire exit poll than he did in real life. And the same was true of Edwards in the Tennessee exit poll. So while our friends in the liberal media (not that they're not objective!) get all worked up about an Edwards surge, keep your eye on the vote board.

The A-Rod of TV News

Rick Kaplan finally got a job worthy of his talent. He'll be running MSNBC, which has been mismanaged since its inception. Kaplan may well be the best "live news" producer in the business.

No Joy in Mudville

Red Sox Nation suffers from severe mood swings; wild bursts of optimism and enthusiasm are followed by new depths of despair. Today, however, may be the lowest point ever. Mighty A-Rod is a Yank.

Ommmmmmmmmm!

Another primary day and still no negative ads. The New York Times finally waddles into this story and offers an explanation. Mr. Kerry's rivals can't run negative ads because Democratic primary voters won't stand for it! Who says so? DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe says so!

That settles it, don't you think? Ommmmmmmm.

Source-Greaser 101

Now that Senator John Kerry has locked up the Democratic presidential nomination, time for The New York Times to start locking up sources within the Kerry campaign! Today's slathering source-greaser features Cameron Kerry, the Senator's younger brother, a lawyer/fixer at Bob Popeo's firm in Boston. The piece goes so far as to quote film-maker George Butler as saying that the Kerry brothers' relationship is reminiscent of -- yes, that's right -- JFK and RFK.

Ellisblog awaits the ultimate Kerry source greaser -- a profile of the great Tommy Vallely, who remains the only conceivable reason one might vote for Senator Kerry.

Watch What They Do

The New York City Police Department is preparing for the worst. Judith Miller has the story.

Choices

Well, we can fight the War on Terror or we can investigate the people who are fighting the war on terror. Guess which one the Republican-controlled Senate wants to do? Not only have they chosen to do the latter, they want to "shape" the president's daily intelligence briefing. I am not making this up.

There's one word for the behavior of the GOP Senate caucus: pathetic. You'll be shocked to learn that The New York Times writes this up in glowing terms.

Reader E-Mail

You posted a link to the NY Times story regarding the Senate's pending investigation of the intelligence briefings received by the President and the possible hyping of intelligence information by officials.

It seemed to me that this article must be read against the backdrop of another recent event -- the release of a Democratic staff memo (published without authorization) that detailed a Democratic plan to use the information developed by the Senate committee for political purposes. My recollection is that neither the senior Democrat on the committee (Senator Rockefeller) nor anyone in the Democratic senior leadership ever disavowed the memo's strategy of politicizing the committee's work. True, this leaked memo has received little attention in the Media. But, if the NY Times article is to properly explore the issues, should it not at least make at least some reference to the leaked memo as (perhaps) providing some explanation for the Administration's reluctance to share information. And what does this say about the willingness of the Republicans on the committee to play along?

-R.F.

AWOL From The Facts

Our friends in the liberal media (not that they're not objective!) find themselves scrambling as the Bush AWOL story collapses around them. The question is whether they will apologize for all the lies and disinformation they've been so eagerly broadcasting.

Ellisblog's view: How does never work for you?