Twist and Shout!

The Kerry staff shake-up story is now official, thanks to the estimable Albert Hunt, former Washington Bureau Chief of The Wall Street Journal, whose sources inside both the Boston mafia and the national Democratic Party infrastructure are, let's just say, well-informed. Without further ado, let's go to the text of Mr. Hunt's blog-like "convention dispatch:"

Dispirited Democrats -- prominent senators, top fundraisers, even a few Kerry confidants -- have told the candidate, who is in Nantucket, that high-level changes are imperative. A few very well-connected Democrats report something will occur in the next few days. One person who might assume more control is Joe Lockhart, a former press secretary to Bill Clinton and a respected public-relations figure, but one who has almost no experience in the high-stakes world of presidential campaigns. Another possibility: veteran Democratic politico John Sasso, currently at the Democratic National Committee.

If there is a change -- Sen. Kerry privately is said to be "bouncing off the walls" in frustration -- it has to be imminent as the eight-week campaign is in full swing by Labor Day. "We have 48 hours," acknowledges an insider.

Do you suppose that one of those "very well-connected Democrats" might be...John Sasso? Do you suppose another might be Mr. William Daley? I do! I don't think Mr. Hunt would have written the above two paragraphs without having at least some sense that a "change" was coming. And I don't think he would have written it so urgently (his regular WSJ op-ed column appears on Thursdays, which is tomorrow), unless he felt that the news might break ahead of his Wednesday afternoon deadline.

Credit Mickey Kaus for moving this story along. Shortly after he arrived in New York, he began beating the drum. It's now the talk of the dispirited press herd here in Manhattan. The perfect press story for a GOP Convention; it allows them to talk to their Democratic friends and call it work.

Update: Senor Hunt is now backing away from his "convention dispatch" of yesterday with a new "convention dispatch" that says, essentially, never mind, it's just Joel Lockhart. Windsurf away!

Making The Cut

Tiger Woods did it again yesterday at the PGA Championship. With six holes left to play and a Friday "trunk slam" staring him in the face, he carded three birdies and three pars to keep his extraordinary record of "made cuts" in tact.

"I saw a lot of you guys [reporters] coming out on the last few holes," said Woods, "and I just wanted to ruin your day. . . . I wasn't playing that well, so I had to somehow just grind it out, be patient and hopefully things would come around. And they did. . . . I think that's the one thing I'm most proud of." As well he might be.

The golfing press -- the largest collection of half-wits this side of the National Press Club in Washington -- had spent most of Friday gloating that Woods' "made cuts" streak was finally coming to an end. Oh well. Maybe next time.

Bob Costas, Mind Reader

NBC Olympics anchors Katie Couric and Bob Costas seemed fairly certain that the US team would not be well received by the huge crowd at last night's Opening Ceremonies in Athens. When Team USA was, in fact, greeted with a sustained and clamorous ovation, Mr. Costas sought to explain.

The Greeks, you see, can separate their love for the American people from the policies of the United States government. The warm reception they gave to Team USA should not in any way be construed as an endorsement of those policies.

Well thanks, Bob, for clearing that up. God forbid anyone might support the policies of the US government as it wages a global war against Islamic fascism. Mr. Costas's ability to read the minds of 75,000 people he's never met is remarkable. He has a big future as a political pundit.

The Laws of CW

I'm a little confused by Mark Halperin's assertion that the presidential race is now "Kerry's to lose." Isn't the Iron Law of Conventional Wisdom that "whoever leads in the Gallup Poll after Labor Day wins the election? " Isn't President Bush leading in the Gallup Poll now? Isn't it likely that President Bush's lead in the Gallup Poll will increase somewhat following the Republican National Convention and the 9/11 anniversary? If President Bush is up by, say, six in the Gallup Poll after Labor Day, won't he be the favorite to win in November?

(The answer to all these questions, in case you were wondering, is "yes.")

First Day Stories

Are never the real story, of course. One suspects that Governor Jim McGreevey has long been aware that he was and is "a gay American." One further suspects that a certain New Jersey developer will rise to the surface of this tawdry tale in short order. And that what we learn as we go along will confirm all of our worst suspicions about New Jersey politics.

If you haven't read it, you must read today's McGreevey coverage in The New York Times. It is a mushy masterpiece of political correctness.

And while you are there, you might want to read the NYT's equally remarkable (for different reasons) piece on the UN's oil-for-food scandal. Apart from being about six months late to the story, the NYT somehow manages to not credit all of the hard work done on this story by other news organizations. Of course, the NYT never credits other news organizations in its pages (unless it absolutely has to), but in this case the omission is so egregious that it merits some kind of special prize for chutzpah.

Reporting For Duty Notes

1) I'm John Ellis, reporting for duty. The speech was, as they say, a "missed opportunity." Sullivan accurately describes what went wrong (see his post of this morning, filed shortly after the speech). It was a Mickey Kaus moment, although -- weirdly -- Kaus himself found the speech effective. Go figure.

In general, I guess the Democratic Convention was a net positive for them (because the press described it as such). But the "brain-deadedness" of the party is troubling; with the exception of embryonic stem cell research, it's as if twenty years of breath-taking changes in technology and science were a subject for another day.

These transformational and disruptive technologies are at the heart of the three major issues of American politics. Those issues are the national security, the global economy and the culture we leave to our kids. Democrats talk about technology and science as gadgetry. Listening to (and reading) the major speeches was both depressing and boring. The leading lights appear to have given little thought to what disruptive technology and science imply.

I'm for Bush, of course, so maybe it's just me. But I don't think it's just me. I think a lot of people looked at the Democratic Convention all week and John Kerry last night and said: "they just don't get it."

2) Moving right along, blogging went prime time at the Convention and proved every bit as boring as Tod Purham (or whatever his name is). There are five functions a blog can serve. It can provide reportage, analysis, commentary (based on expertise), an unique point of view and opinion. In general, the best blogs are strong on analysis and commentary and POV.

The blogging from the Fleet Center amounted to "we're here!" Reportage was virtually non-existent. Story identification and creation were uniformly uninspired. All in all, a dreadful performance.

3) The best news from the Convention was that Senators Kerry and Edwards pointedly did not advocate a reversal of the President's national security policy as laid out in his famous West Point speech of 2002. Pre-emptive action in a world of failed states, Islamo-fascists and catastrophic weaponry is essential to the national security interests of the United States.

The Promise of a Long National Nightmare

One of the reasons that Senator John Kerry can't be elected president is that he is so pompous, so boring and so self-righteous that the prospect of having him as President of the United States is simply unacceptable. We would all end up killing ourselves while watching him on TV, night after night, droning on.

Don't believe me? Read this transcript. Just try to get through it. Now imagine having to watch it.

There is no known antidote.

Clueless

Voter reaction to the selection of Senator John Edwards as the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee-designate has been tepid, to say the least. If you average out the public polls taken since Tuesday's announcement, you find almost no "bounce." This has been the talk of the political community for the last two days.

Adam Nagourney, chief political correspondent for The New York Times, has a different view of the Edwards choice. To wit:

"The Democrats' emerging plan for Mr. Edwards comes at a time when Democratic and even some Republican officials suggest that Mr. Kerry's vice-presidential selection has the potential of being the most politically significant choice since another Massachusetts Democrat, John F. Kennedy, turned to another Southerner, Lyndon B. Johnson, in 1960. Many experts say the choice of Johnson pushed Texas into the Democrats' column and ensured Kennedy's victory."

To quote the junior Senator from New York: "Okey-dokey, artichokey!" Given that Nagourney's talents as a political analyst are underwhelming, it's not surprising that he would write such drivel. What is surprising is that his editors would publish it.

Postscript: Mister Kaus discerns a "bounce" for Edwards in the "head to head" match-ups collected at RCP. Nice try, but it's a three-way race. And there is no movement -- at all -- inside the three-way numbers.

Dem Picks Gephardt as VP Candidate

So read the sub-head of this morning's New York Post. Given that Deborah Orin, the Post's Washington bureau chief, is one of the best political reporters in the game, how could the paper have made such an embarrassing mistake? Explanation #1: Orin was on vacation. Explanation #2: Orin was deliberately misled by the Kerry campaign. Explanation #3: Someone in the Kerry campaign was deliberately misled by someone else in the Kerry campaign, knowing that the first someone would likely talk to Orin.

Explanation #1 seems unlikely (Orin was almost certainly on the case, knowing that the Kerry VP choice was coming today). So the question is: was it #2 or #3?

None of the Above! The editors did it! Which is why the story was so weirdly written and why the "apology" was so opaque.

Yankees Sweep

You won't read a better baseball column this year than Murray Chass's dissection of the Boston Red Sox. Wednesday night, David Ortiz misplayed a hard-hit grounder and made a scene of replacing his glove, as if that had anything to do with it. Thursday night, Derek Jeter risked all to make a spectacular catch of a looper foul ball. The contrast in athletic behavior could not have been more stark.

The Yankees of 2004 have become a great baseball team. The Red Sox of 2004 have become an error-prone embarrassment. One hopes the Sox get their act together soon. If they don't, there won't be an ALCS rematch. The Angels will be playing the Yankees and the Yankees will win.

The End of Jack Ryan

I suspect that it will take more than another week for Jack Ryan to finally come to his senses and withdraw from the Illinois Senate race. Bad news for the Republican Party, which had a shot at this seat. But look on the bright side, the Jay Leno joke contained in this story is pretty good.

It is remarkable how long these things drag on, while the supposedly "brilliant" candidate mulls over a decision that has already been made for him by his core constiutuents. Jack Ryan is deader than twelve smelts and every single person in the political worls knows it. Except for him. See: Rowland, John, Governor of Connecticut.

Update: Wrong! Ryan withdrew shortly after this item was posted. The upshot of the story was not that this was a terrible invasion of Mr. Ryan's privacy (which it was). The upshot was that the Tribune Company will now try to compel the unsealing of Senator Kerry's divorce papers. It gets worse every minute.